EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at 塔普卡 PTM賽季店冠賽.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 2 | 8.0% | 10 | 90.0% | 69.0% | 61.3% | 58.1% | 1401 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Aetherwing | 2 | 8.0% | 8 | 56.2% | 48.9% | 55.4% | 54.1% | 1336 | — |
| 3 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 4.0% | 7 | 64.3% | 72.7% | 54.2% | 59.7% | 1234 | ↓ low |
| 4 | Wind Seiryuu | 2 | 8.0% | 13 | 61.5% | 51.9% | 52.1% | 51.7% | 1330 | — |
| 5 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 4.0% | 6 | 58.3% | 56.9% | 51.9% | 53.3% | 1368 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Crux Merlin | 1 | 4.0% | 6 | 58.3% | 54.1% | 50.2% | 51.9% | 1386 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Horse and Taxes | 1 | 4.0% | 6 | 58.3% | 56.2% | 50.0% | 51.3% | 1322 | — |
| 8 | Water Fractal | 4 | 16.0% | 23 | 63.0% | 46.1% | 49.9% | 46.6% | 1325 | — |
| 9 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 3 | 12.0% | 15 | 40.0% | 37.3% | 49.2% | 47.9% | 1286 | — |
| 10 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 4.0% | 5 | 50.0% | 38.9% | 49.1% | 45.9% | 1393 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 4.0% | 5 | 50.0% | 58.3% | 48.3% | 52.0% | 1168 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 4.0% | 5 | 60.0% | 58.6% | 48.0% | 51.1% | 1306 | — |
| 13 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 4.0% | 5 | 30.0% | 48.1% | 46.7% | 50.6% | 1173 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Wind Exia | 1 | 4.0% | 3 | 16.7% | 47.0% | 45.7% | 51.0% | 1271 | — |
| 15 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 4.0% | 4 | 25.0% | 39.6% | 45.0% | 45.8% | 1142 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 4.0% | 3 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.0% | 41.6% | 1284 | — |
| 17 | Wind Allies | 1 | 4.0% | 4 | 0.0% | 42.8% | 37.0% | 46.3% | 945 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Wind Chess | 1 | 4.0% | 4 | 0.0% | 42.8% | 37.0% | 46.3% | 945 | ↓ low |
| 19 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 4.0% | 4 | 0.0% | 42.8% | 37.0% | 46.3% | 945 | ↓ low |