← Whimsy PTM Store Championship
Fire AetherwingTier 2
at Whimsy PTM Store Championship
decks
2
(6.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
4-7-0
overall winrate
36.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.6%
avg ELO -2.8 per match
expected value
45.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1286
· median 1286
· range 1221–1352
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1072
Q1 1221
Q3 1448
1642
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 15.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +1.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.7% | +3.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.8% | -13.7 |
| Water Fractal | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.1% | -7.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.1 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.9% | -5.0 |
| Water Umbra Alice | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Dawn of Ashes | 3.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.5% | +7.2 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
