← Whimsy PTM Store Championship
Wind AlliesTier 2
at Whimsy PTM Store Championship
decks
3
(9.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
4-6-1
overall winrate
40.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.6%
avg ELO -1.5 per match
expected value
45.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1286
· median 1297
· range 1206–1355
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1072
Q1 1221
Q3 1448
1642
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 15.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.4% | -13.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.8% | -17.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 56.7% | +6.4 |
| Water Fractal | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.1% | -7.9 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.0% | +23.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.7% | -3.6 |
| Water Umbra Alice | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Dawn of Ashes | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.1% | -19.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
