← Whimsy PTM Store Championship
Wind Dawn of AshesTier 2
at Whimsy PTM Store Championship
decks
1
(3.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
2-4-0
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.3%
avg ELO +0.7 per match
expected value
48.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1159
· median 1159
· range 1159–1159
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1072
Q1 1221
Q3 1448
1642
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 15.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.9% | +19.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 6.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 42.5% | -7.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.1% | -4.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Alice | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.7 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Wind Dawn of Ashes decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
