← The Nerd Merchant Phantom Monarchs Championships
Fire Crux LorraineTier 2
at The Nerd Merchant Phantom Monarchs Championships
decks
1
(11.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
2-2-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.7%
avg ELO -0.2 per match
expected value
48.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1268
· median 1268
· range 1268–1268
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1077
Q1 1186
Q3 1278
1484
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 22.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.8% | -16.3 |
| Water Fractal | 22.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +0.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.7 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Crux Lorraine decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
