← The Nerd Merchant Phantom Monarchs Championships
Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at The Nerd Merchant Phantom Monarchs Championships
decks
2
(22.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
3-3-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.2%
avg ELO +2.1 per match
expected value
48.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1186
· median 1186
· range 1077–1294
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1077
Q1 1186
Q3 1278
1484
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 22.2% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 46.1% | -3.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +17.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.8% | +2.7 |
