← The Nerd Merchant Phantom Monarchs Championships
Water FractalTier 1
at The Nerd Merchant Phantom Monarchs Championships
decks
2
(22.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
5-1-1
overall winrate
78.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
60.3%
avg ELO +5.2 per match
expected value
58.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1381
· median 1381
· range 1278–1484
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1077
Q1 1186
Q3 1278
1484
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 22.2% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 53.9% | +3.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 11.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -0.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 11.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.5% | +10.1 |
| Water Genbu | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
