← The Nerd Merchant Phantom Monarchs Championships
Fire Crux MageTier 1
at The Nerd Merchant Phantom Monarchs Championships
decks
1
(11.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
3-1-0
overall winrate
75.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
62.6%
avg ELO +8.0 per match
expected value
53.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1275
· median 1275
· range 1275–1275
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1077
Q1 1186
Q3 1278
1484
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 22.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.5 |
| Water Fractal | 22.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.4 |
| Water Genbu | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Crux Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
