The Nerd Merchant Phantom Monarchs Championships

Click an archetype for its head-to-head row vs every other deck. Mirror matches are excluded from winrates and EV. Sparse matchups are shrunk toward 50% via a Beta(2, 2) prior; draws count as 0.5. Adj WR is the same matchup record converted from per-match ELO deltas (skill-controlled). Faded winrate / EV figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — single-event numbers are noisy, so read them as rough.

#	Archetype		Tier	Decks	Share	W-L-D	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1		Fire Umbra Guardian	Tier 2	2	22.2%	3-3-1	50.0%	54.2%	48.9%	50.9%	1186	↓ low
2		Water Fractal	Tier 1	2	22.2%	5-1-1	78.6%	60.3%	58.7%	54.8%	1381	↑ top
3		Fire Crux Lorraine	Tier 2	1	11.1%	2-2-0	50.0%	49.7%	48.0%	48.0%	1268	—
4		Fire Crux Mage	Tier 1	1	11.1%	3-1-0	75.0%	62.6%	53.3%	54.0%	1275	—
5		Water Aetherwing	Tier 2	1	11.1%	1-3-0	25.0%	43.7%	41.7%	45.4%	1186	↓ low
6		Water Genbu	Tier 2	1	11.1%	0-3-0	0.0%	29.0%	40.0%	40.0%	1147	↓ low
7		Wind Shadowstrike	Tier 2	1	11.1%	1-2-0	33.3%	41.4%	46.7%	45.3%	1253	—

Every player at this event, by final placement — at events with a top cut, cut finishers are ranked by bracket result, then the rest by Swiss standing. The W-L-D record is tallied from recorded matches; byes excluded.

The event's archetypes at a glance — click a tile for its head-to-head row and decklists.

• Fire Umbra Guardian 2 decks · 22.2%
• Water Fractal 2 decks · 22.2%
• Fire Crux Lorraine 1 deck · 11.1%
• Fire Crux Mage 1 deck · 11.1%
• Water Aetherwing 1 deck · 11.1%
• Water Genbu 1 deck · 11.1%
• Wind Shadowstrike 1 deck · 11.1%