← Gaming Giant ALC Regional Championships
Fire EruptingTier 2
at Gaming Giant ALC Regional Championships
decks
2
(8.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
3-6-0
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.2%
avg ELO -3.2 per match
expected value
43.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1198
· median 1198
· range 1167–1230
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1064
Q1 1165
Q3 1345
1656
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 13.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 45.5% | -3.4 |
| Water Allies | 13.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.9 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 13.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.1 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 8.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.2 |
| Wind Allies | 8.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.7% | +3.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
