← Gaming Giant ALC Regional Championships
Water AlliesTier 1
at Gaming Giant ALC Regional Championships
decks
3
(13.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
13
7-4-2
overall winrate
61.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.4%
avg ELO +3.5 per match
expected value
53.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1276
· median 1321
· range 1124–1385
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1064
Q1 1165
Q3 1345
1656
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 13.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 13.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 43.8% | -6.0 |
| Fire Erupting | 8.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 8.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.9% | -4.6 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 8.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Wind Allies | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.4 |
| Fire Neos | 4.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.3% | +12.7 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 4.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 44.4% | -5.4 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
