← Oregon PTM Regional by Mox Valley Games
Fire Crux MageTier 2
at Oregon PTM Regional by Mox Valley Games
decks
4
(12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
16
3-9-4
overall winrate
31.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
39.8%
avg ELO -4.1 per match
expected value
45.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1245
· median 1289
· range 1057–1343
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1051
Q1 1239
Q3 1431
1511
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 21.9% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 52.2% | +2.1 |
| Water Genbu | 12.5% | 6 | 2-2-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.1% | +2.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.9% | -10.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.7% | -13.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 6.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.6 |
| Water Fractal | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.6 |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.5 |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
