← Oregon PTM Regional by Mox Valley Games
Water FractalTier 1
at Oregon PTM Regional by Mox Valley Games
decks
2
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
6-3-1
overall winrate
65.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.2%
avg ELO +2.3 per match
expected value
52.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1458
· median 1458
· range 1418–1497
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1051
Q1 1239
Q3 1431
1511
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 21.9% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 39.0% | -7.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.6 |
| Water Genbu | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.5% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 62.5% | +9.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.9 |
