← Oregon PTM Regional by Mox Valley Games
Water Crux MageTier 2
at Oregon PTM Regional by Mox Valley Games
decks
1
(3.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
1-3-0
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.0%
avg ELO +0.0 per match
expected value
48.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1272
· median 1272
· range 1272–1272
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1051
Q1 1239
Q3 1431
1511
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 21.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.5 |
| Water Genbu | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.1% | -4.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -7.4 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.5% | -2.5 |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
