← Oregon PTM Regional by Mox Valley Games
Water GenbuTier 2
at Oregon PTM Regional by Mox Valley Games
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 21.9% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 42.7% | -4.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.5% | 6 | 2-2-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.9% | -2.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.4% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 45.6% | -4.2 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.1% | -19.0 |
| Water Fractal | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.2% | +21.1 |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.9% | +4.6 |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.2 |
| Wind Silvie | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 14 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 14 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |