← Oregon PTM Regional by Mox Valley Games
Water AetherwingTier 1
at Oregon PTM Regional by Mox Valley Games
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 47.8% | -2.1 |
| Water Genbu | 12.5% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 57.3% | +4.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.5% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 37.6% | -8.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 42.4% | -7.3 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 6.2% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.5% | -1.6 |
| Water Fractal | 6.2% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 61.0% | +7.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.2% | +5.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.2% | +10.7 |
| Wind Silvie | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 7 from this event
The 7 public Water Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Viridian Protective Trinket, Languid Toadtroll, Reposition. Losers more often ran: Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin, Snow White, Weiss Queen, Drown in Aether.
Show all 21 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 4 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Snow White, Weiss Queen | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Languid Toadtroll | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Drown in Aether | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Reposition | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Seeker's Aetherwing | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -0.50 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aetheric Calibration | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -0.50 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Undercurrent Vantage | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tactical Retreat | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Take Aim | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Ranger Boots | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aetheric Reforging | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 |