← HP WolvesDen - PTM Store Championship
Fire AggroTier 2
at HP WolvesDen - PTM Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.9% | -5.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.4% | +18.3 |
| Water Fractal | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.0% | -17.7 |
| Wind Allies | 6.2% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 53.9% | +3.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +1.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.2% | -10.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.3% | -4.3 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.4% | -24.9 |
| Slimes | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.5% | -5.5 |
| Wind Exia | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.4% | -2.5 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.5% | +5.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.5 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 29 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 29 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reduce to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignited Stab | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Courier | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |