← HP WolvesDen - PTM Store Championship
Fire Crux MageTier 2
at HP WolvesDen - PTM Store Championship
decks
2
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
3-5-0
overall winrate
37.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
38.9%
avg ELO -5.3 per match
expected value
48.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1286
· median 1286
· range 1171–1400
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
936
Q1 1224
Q3 1364
1630
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 15.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.6% | -18.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.4 |
| Wind Allies | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.7 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.7% | -13.3 |
| Fire Suited | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.9% | -19.3 |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -12.9 |
| Wind Byakko | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.7% | -19.6 |
