← HP WolvesDen - PTM Store Championship
Water FractalTier 1
at HP WolvesDen - PTM Store Championship
decks
2
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
5-4-0
overall winrate
55.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.2%
avg ELO +1.0 per match
expected value
54.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1452
· median 1452
· range 1345–1559
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
936
Q1 1224
Q3 1364
1630
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 15.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.4 |
| Wind Allies | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.3% | -23.5 |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 43.4% | -6.3 |
| Water Genbu | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.4 |
