Fire Crux LorraineTier 2
at EVO Regional
decks
2
(3.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
6-5-1
overall winrate
54.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.9%
avg ELO -0.9 per match
expected value
49.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1317
· median 1317
· range 1241–1393
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1002
Q1 1187
Q3 1381
1688
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.1% | +1.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.4 |
| Water Fractal | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 41.9% | -7.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.2 |
| Water Genbu | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.4% | +2.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.6 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Arisanna | 1.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.0% | -11.1 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
