Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at EVO Regional
decks
3
(5.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
16
8-8-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.8%
avg ELO +2.3 per match
expected value
48.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1218
· median 1233
· range 1167–1252
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1002
Q1 1187
Q3 1381
1688
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.3% | -4.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 57.3% | +5.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.2 |
| Water Genbu | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 41.1% | -8.5 |
| Fire Exia | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Arisanna | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -9.8 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.4 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.6% | +15.0 |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.3 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.4 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.8% | -5.2 |
