Fire SuzakuTier 2
at EVO Regional
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.4% | -12.1 |
| Water Fractal | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.8% | +18.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.2 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.2% | +17.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.5% | -7.2 |
| Water Genbu | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.1% | +21.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Arisanna | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.7 |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.9% | -3.4 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 26 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 26 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignite Fate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cinder Geyser | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Suzaku's Command | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |