Water AetherwingTier 1
at EVO Regional
decks
4
(7.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
24
15-6-3
overall winrate
68.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
64.0%
avg ELO +5.2 per match
expected value
53.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1381
· median 1397
· range 1229–1500
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1002
Q1 1187
Q3 1381
1688
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.5% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 43.3% | -3.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.8% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 66.6% | +10.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.6% | +12.1 |
| Water Genbu | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.4% | +19.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.6% | -23.0 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.5% | +5.7 |
| Water Astra Arisanna | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.7 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.4 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 1.9% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 42.1% | -7.6 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.7% | +5.9 |
| Wind Chess | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.4% | +21.4 |
