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Wind SeiryuuTier 1

at EVO Regional

decks
6 (11.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
30 13-11-6
overall winrate
53.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.8% avg ELO -0.8 per match
expected value
50.7% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.4% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1381 · median 1357 · range 1220–1553 (6 pilots with an ELO rating)
1002 Q1 1187 Q3 1381 1688
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 0% in the bottom. This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Wind Shadowstrike 9.6% 3 0-3-0 0.0% 28.6% 25.8% -18.1
Water Aetherwing 7.7% 5 3-1-1 70.0% 61.1% 56.7% +3.9
Water Fractal 7.7% 3 3-0-0 100.0% 71.4% 70.1% +15.0
Fire Luxem Assassin 5.8% 5 2-2-1 50.0% 50.0% 50.2% +0.1
Fire Umbra Guardian 5.8% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 52.7% +4.4
Fire Aetherwing 3.8% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 41.5% -13.6
Fire Crux Lorraine 3.8% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 48.9% -1.1
Fire Suzaku 3.8% 0
Water Genbu 3.8% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 37.0% -20.8
Fire Aggro 1.9% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.2% +14.7
Fire Crux Mage 1.9% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 43.4% -10.5
Fire Exia 1.9% 0
Fire Firebloom Burn 1.9% 0
Fire Slimes 1.9% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 48.3% -2.7
Fire Umbra Alice 1.9% 0
Water Astra Arisanna 1.9% 0
Water Astra Ranger 1.9% 2 0-1-1 25.0% 41.7% 35.2% -14.2
Water Crux Mage 1.9% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 57.1% +6.8
Water Neos 1.9% 0
Water Ravishing Mill 1.9% 0
Water Tera Mage 1.9% 0
Water Umbra Ciel 1.9% 0
Wind Arcane 1.9% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 56.0% +9.6
Wind Chess 1.9% 0
Wind Ciel 1.9% 0
Wind Crux Lorraine 1.9% 0
Wind Razorgale 1.9% 0
Wind Wakeup Combo 1.9% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 50.6% +1.0
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 14 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 14 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Calming Breeze -1.00 0 1 0
Aesan Protector +1.00 1 0 0
Displace -1.00 0 1 0
Veiling Breeze -1.00 0 1 0
Enfeebling Orb +1.00 1 0 0
Blinding Lapse -1.00 0 1 0
Scatter Essence +1.00 1 0 0
Seiryuu's Command +1.00 1 0 0
Viridian Protective Trinket -1.00 0 1 0
Stolen Chance -1.00 0 1 0
Harness Lightning +1.00 1 0 0
Nullifying Lantern +1.00 1 0 0
Dream Fairy -1.00 0 1 0
Innervate Agility +1.00 1 0 0

JSON: /api/events/46441/archetypes/Wind Seiryuu