← TCGE Grand Archive Store Championship 22/2
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at TCGE Grand Archive Store Championship 22/2.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Aetherwing | 4 | 23.5% | 16 | 65.6% | 53.7% | 57.0% | 52.4% | 1402 | — |
| 2 | Water Umbra Guardian | 1 | 5.9% | 7 | 71.4% | 54.6% | 56.5% | 52.3% | 1499 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Fractal | 1 | 5.9% | 7 | 78.6% | 70.2% | 55.0% | 58.4% | 1414 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 5.9% | 6 | 66.7% | 47.5% | 53.3% | 48.9% | 1516 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Seiryuu | 2 | 11.8% | 9 | 61.1% | 61.0% | 48.2% | 51.5% | 1313 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Fire Suited | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 40.0% | 59.8% | 46.7% | 52.0% | 1234 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Water Allies | 2 | 11.8% | 10 | 40.0% | 51.5% | 45.1% | 49.3% | 1266 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Wind Astra Arisanna | 1 | 5.9% | 4 | 25.0% | 38.4% | 45.0% | 46.1% | 1519 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Wind Slimes | 1 | 5.9% | 6 | 33.3% | 39.2% | 44.4% | 44.0% | 1294 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 5.9% | 4 | 25.0% | 41.3% | 43.8% | 45.2% | 1338 | — |
| 11 | Fire Umbra Ciel | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 20.0% | 27.9% | 43.3% | 41.3% | 1386 | — |
| 12 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 30.0% | 45.5% | 43.3% | 46.9% | 1308 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 5.9% | 2 | 0.0% | 39.4% | 40.0% | 43.2% | 1209 | ↓ low |