← Rapid Star PTM Store Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Rapid Star PTM Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Water Aetherwing 4 20.0% 16 68.8% 59.0% 54.1% 51.3% 1387 ↑ top
2 Wind Seiryuu 4 20.0% 15 53.3% 52.1% 52.2% 52.2% 1325
3 Water Luxem Assassin 1 5.0% 5 50.0% 57.4% 50.9% 53.8% 1226 ↓ low
4 Fire Firebloom Burn 1 5.0% 5 60.0% 53.7% 50.8% 51.2% 1390 ↑ top
5 Horse and Taxes 2 10.0% 7 57.1% 57.7% 50.7% 51.9% 1364
6 Water Fractal 3 15.0% 15 56.7% 57.9% 49.0% 51.0% 1292 ↓ low
7 Fire Oblation 2 10.0% 6 41.7% 40.8% 46.9% 46.3% 1385 ↑ top
8 Fire Byakko 1 5.0% 4 50.0% 47.8% 45.9% 45.3% 1333
9 Fire Genbu 1 5.0% 4 50.0% 47.8% 45.9% 45.3% 1333
10 Fire Seiryuu 1 5.0% 4 50.0% 47.8% 45.9% 45.3% 1333
11 Fire Suzaku 1 5.0% 4 50.0% 47.8% 45.9% 45.3% 1333
12 Wind Shadowstrike 2 10.0% 13 11.5% 26.9% 43.3% 45.1% 1287 ↓ low