← STORE CHAMPIONSHIP (PTM SEASON)
Fire ChessTier 2
at STORE CHAMPIONSHIP (PTM SEASON)
decks
1
(2.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
2-4-0
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.7%
avg ELO -0.7 per match
expected value
49.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1212
· median 1212
· range 1212–1212
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1075
Q1 1252
Q3 1404
1685
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hidden | 17.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 10.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.0% | +5.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.8 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.2% | -6.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.0% | -8.0 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Chess decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
