← STORE CHAMPIONSHIP (PTM SEASON)
Water AetherwingTier 2
at STORE CHAMPIONSHIP (PTM SEASON)
decks
3
(6.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
16
8-4-4
overall winrate
62.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.7%
avg ELO +2.7 per match
expected value
48.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1388
· median 1423
· range 1304–1437
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1075
Q1 1252
Q3 1404
1685
67% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hidden | 17.4% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 33.7% | -12.1 |
| Water Fractal | 10.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 62.4% | +9.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.8 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.3% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.2% | -2.7 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
| Fire Chess | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.9 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.2% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.3% | -6.4 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
