← STORE CHAMPIONSHIP (PTM SEASON)
Wind Umbra RangerTier 1
at STORE CHAMPIONSHIP (PTM SEASON)
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hidden | 17.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 10.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +12.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.4 |
| Fire Chess | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.5 |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.5 |
| Water Allies | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 27.8% | -21.3 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.3 |
| Wind Chess | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 16 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 16 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calming Breeze | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Wind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scout the Land | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Wind | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Focusing Round | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unmake Duality | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rapid Reload | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |