← STORE CHAMPIONSHIP (PTM SEASON)
Water FractalTier 2
at STORE CHAMPIONSHIP (PTM SEASON)
decks
5
(10.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
25
9-13-3
overall winrate
42.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
35.3%
avg ELO -5.4 per match
expected value
47.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1384
· median 1382
· range 1175–1590
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
1075
Q1 1252
Q3 1404
1685
40% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
20% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hidden | 17.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.1% | -5.1 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 37.6% | -9.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.5 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -1.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.8% | -8.3 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 4.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -12.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 52.8% | +2.7 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Chess | 2.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.0% | -5.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% | -11.9 |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 2.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.0% | -5.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 26.2% | -22.9 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.7% | -19.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.6% | +1.5 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
