← STORE CHAMPIONSHIP (PTM SEASON)
Fire Crux LorraineTier 2
at STORE CHAMPIONSHIP (PTM SEASON)
decks
2
(4.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
2-5-1
overall winrate
31.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
40.6%
avg ELO -4.5 per match
expected value
46.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1227
· median 1227
· range 1189–1266
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1075
Q1 1252
Q3 1404
1685
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hidden | 17.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -7.3 |
| Water Fractal | 10.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.2% | +8.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.9 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.5 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Chess | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.8% | -19.5 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.8% | -19.5 |
| Wind Chess | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Crux Lorraine decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
