EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at DX STORE CHAMP.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
2nd
Wind Astra Cleric
57.4%
↑ top
1st
Water Aetherwing
58.9%
↑ top
3rd
Water Dawn of Ashes
54.4%
↓ low
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Aetherwing | 2 | 7.7% | 8 | 87.5% | 68.0% | 58.9% | 56.3% | 1589 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 3.8% | 5 | 70.0% | 55.1% | 57.4% | 53.5% | 1402 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Dawn of Ashes | 1 | 3.8% | 5 | 60.0% | 60.4% | 54.4% | 54.4% | 1208 | ↓ low |
| 4 | Water Neos | 1 | 3.8% | 5 | 60.0% | 60.4% | 54.4% | 54.4% | 1208 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Water Allies | 1 | 3.8% | 5 | 50.0% | 41.7% | 52.0% | 47.9% | 1392 | — |
| 6 | Fire Aggro | 2 | 7.7% | 3 | 33.3% | 43.0% | 51.4% | 50.6% | 1338 | — |
| 7 | Water Genbu | 1 | 3.8% | 6 | 58.3% | 48.5% | 51.2% | 49.5% | 1478 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 3.8% | 5 | 60.0% | 45.5% | 50.0% | 45.8% | 1338 | — |
| 9 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 3.8% | 3 | 33.3% | 49.8% | 50.0% | 52.6% | 1193 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Wind Seiryuu | 2 | 7.7% | 7 | 50.0% | 53.3% | 49.2% | 50.5% | 1227 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Water Luxem Assassin | 2 | 7.7% | 7 | 50.0% | 45.9% | 49.2% | 47.5% | 1418 | ↑ top |
| 12 | Horse and Taxes | 1 | 3.8% | 4 | 25.0% | 46.1% | 48.9% | 51.3% | 1198 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Water Fractal | 4 | 15.4% | 18 | 41.7% | 51.5% | 48.0% | 50.3% | 1321 | — |
| 14 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 3.8% | 3 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 46.7% | 49.5% | 1300 | — |
| 15 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 7.7% | 5 | 30.0% | 41.4% | 45.0% | 45.6% | 1286 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 3.8% | 4 | 50.0% | 43.0% | 44.8% | 42.5% | 1388 | — |
| 17 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 3.8% | 4 | 12.5% | 34.7% | 44.0% | 45.3% | 1173 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 3.8% | 2 | 50.0% | 44.4% | 44.0% | 42.1% | 1525 | ↑ top |
| 19 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 3.8% | 1 | 0.0% | 45.8% | 40.0% | 45.8% | 1381 | — |