← Brunei Phantom Monarch Regionals
Fire Crux MageTier 2
at Brunei Phantom Monarch Regionals
decks
2
(5.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
5-5-2
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.9%
avg ELO +2.5 per match
expected value
49.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1192
· median 1192
· range 1162–1222
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1019
Q1 1169
Q3 1309
1532
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aetherwing | 7.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.6% | -7.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.9% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 58.8% | +8.5 |
| Water Genbu | 7.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -0.9 |
| Wind Arcane | 7.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.5% | -8.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.8% | +4.4 |
| Fire Polkhawk | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.4 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.5 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
