← Brunei Phantom Monarch Regionals
Water AetherwingTier 1
at Brunei Phantom Monarch Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aetherwing | 7.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 7.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 7.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.4% | +17.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 57.3% | +5.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 41.2% | -8.5 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 5.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 43.1% | -6.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.9% | +11.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.7% | +9.2 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.2% | -7.7 |
| Fire Polkhawk | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.1 |
| Water Allies | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.1% | +21.0 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 14 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 14 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Refreshing Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aetheric Calibration | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow White, Weiss Queen | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Languid Toadtroll | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Drown in Aether | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Take Aim | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |