← Brunei Phantom Monarch Regionals
Water AlliesTier 2
at Brunei Phantom Monarch Regionals
decks
1
(2.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
2-4-0
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
27.5%
avg ELO -12.0 per match
expected value
45.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
40.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1365
· median 1365
· range 1365–1365
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1019
Q1 1169
Q3 1309
1532
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aetherwing | 7.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 28.1% | -21.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.6% | -23.1 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 7.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 7.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.8% | -17.8 |
| Fire Polkhawk | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.9% | +4.6 |
| Fire Suited | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Allies decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
