← Brunei Phantom Monarch Regionals
Water GenbuTier 1
at Brunei Phantom Monarch Regionals
decks
3
(7.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
9-6-3
overall winrate
58.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
59.8%
avg ELO +3.9 per match
expected value
52.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1268
· median 1311
· range 1169–1324
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1019
Q1 1169
Q3 1309
1532
67% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aetherwing | 7.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.1 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 7.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +0.9 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 5.3% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 40.4% | -7.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.0% | +17.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.6 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.1% | -7.8 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.6% | +2.5 |
| Fire Polkhawk | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.6% | -3.8 |
| Water Allies | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.1% | +3.9 |
