← Back To Games Town Center Jumeirah PTM Regionals
Fire CielTier 2
at Back To Games Town Center Jumeirah PTM Regionals
decks
1
(2.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
2
0-2-0
overall winrate
0.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
35.6%
avg ELO -13.8 per match
expected value
40.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
41.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1098
· median 1098
· range 1098–1098
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1011
Q1 1134
Q3 1283
1425
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Exia | 9.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 7.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 7.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 7.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 7.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Merlin | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.7% | -13.3 |
| Wind Neos | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Ciel decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
