← Back To Games Town Center Jumeirah PTM Regionals
Fire ExiaTier 1
at Back To Games Town Center Jumeirah PTM Regionals
decks
4
(9.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
20
10-8-2
overall winrate
55.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
59.7%
avg ELO +3.7 per match
expected value
50.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1169
· median 1151
· range 1103–1270
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1011
Q1 1134
Q3 1283
1425
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 7.3% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 63.7% | +8.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 7.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.1% | +15.4 |
| Horse and Taxes | 7.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.5% | -7.2 |
| Water Genbu | 7.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.9% | -8.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 4.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.9% | +2.8 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.9% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 44.7% | -5.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.8% | +17.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.9% | -10.7 |
| Fire Ciel | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.7 |
| Slimes | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.9 |
| Water Slimes | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Merlin | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
