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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Exia | 9.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 7.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +8.9 |
| Water Genbu | 7.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.9% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -0.6 |
| Fire Suited | 4.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.3% | -1.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -1.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ciel | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Merlin | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.7 |
| Wind Neos | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.8% | +0.8 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.2 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 19 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 19 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calming Breeze | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Volda, Smolder's Spite | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cry for Help | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lavasoul Tiger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Purifying Thurible | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bestial Frenzy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Infernal Vessel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lavaheated Brew | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enchaining Gale | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |