EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Store Championships.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 4 | 19.0% | 13 | 73.1% | 64.9% | 57.4% | 55.5% | 1339 | — |
| 2 | Water Allies | 1 | 4.8% | 4 | 50.0% | 58.3% | 56.0% | 57.9% | 1162 | ↓ low |
| 3 | Fire Crux Mage | 2 | 9.5% | 8 | 56.2% | 46.2% | 52.3% | 48.0% | 1447 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 4.8% | 4 | 75.0% | 47.6% | 51.1% | 46.2% | 1576 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 9.5% | 8 | 56.2% | 63.6% | 50.6% | 53.6% | 1292 | — |
| 6 | Water Fractal | 1 | 4.8% | 4 | 50.0% | 49.4% | 48.1% | 48.3% | 1276 | — |
| 7 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 4.8% | 4 | 50.0% | 44.8% | 48.0% | 46.0% | 1552 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Water Aetherwing | 4 | 19.0% | 11 | 59.1% | 52.4% | 47.5% | 48.1% | 1342 | — |
| 9 | Water Astra Cleric | 1 | 4.8% | 4 | 25.0% | 54.2% | 43.8% | 52.5% | 1088 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 4.8% | 4 | 25.0% | 47.5% | 42.5% | 47.1% | 1185 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 4.8% | 4 | 25.0% | 23.5% | 41.0% | 35.0% | 1436 | ↑ top |
| 12 | Wind Chess | 1 | 4.8% | 3 | 0.0% | 34.9% | 36.7% | 40.6% | 1166 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Water Crux Assassin | 1 | 4.8% | 3 | 0.0% | 35.3% | 34.7% | 40.4% | 1153 | ↓ low |