Fire Crux MerlinTier 2
at canyon store champion
decks
1
(4.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
1-4-0
overall winrate
20.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
35.7%
avg ELO -8.2 per match
expected value
40.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
41.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1124
· median 1124
· range 1124–1124
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1124
Q1 1226
Q3 1388
1550
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 13.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.3% | -13.2 |
| Water Fractal | 13.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 13.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.8 |
| Fire Suited | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Alice | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Crux Merlin decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
