Fire ArcaneTier 2
at GAG RDO Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.2 |
| Slimes | 5.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.1 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 5.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.6% | -11.9 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.5 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -14.0 |
| Fire Alice | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.7 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.4% | +19.8 |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.3% | -18.8 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Arcane decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 42 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 42 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erratic Bolt | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Mnemonic Charm | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Voltaic Sphere | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Arcane Sight | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Alkahest | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Expel the Departed | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Surging Search | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Lost Providence | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Gloamspire, Black Market | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Scorching Knowledge | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Lavastorm | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Advent of the Stormcaller | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Break Apart | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tome of Sacred Lightning | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cauterizing Seraphim | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Increasing Danger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peaceful Reunion | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Raziel, Archangel of Libra | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ionized Asceticism | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Benediction Angel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reversal's Polarity | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ducal Seal | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |