Water FractalTier 2
at GAG RDO Store Championship
decks
1
(2.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-3-0
overall winrate
40.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
31.3%
avg ELO -10.8 per match
expected value
47.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1442
· median 1442
· range 1442–1442
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
999
Q1 1234
Q3 1405
1571
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.6% | -23.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.6% | -19.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.6% | -24.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Alice | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
