Water AetherwingTier 1
at GAG RDO Store Championship
decks
2
(5.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
7-2-3
overall winrate
70.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
62.7%
avg ELO +5.4 per match
expected value
56.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
55.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1418
· median 1418
· range 1374–1461
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
999
Q1 1234
Q3 1405
1571
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.3% | +12.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 43.1% | -6.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.1% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.8% | +1.3 |
| Slimes | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 5.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 57.2% | +7.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.2% | +3.6 |
| Fire Alice | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
