← StoneCup -Road to Nationals-
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at StoneCup -Road to Nationals-.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 80.0% | 51.3% | 57.5% | 50.4% | 1560 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Genbu | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 90.0% | 54.9% | 57.0% | 51.5% | 1292 | — |
| 3 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 60.0% | 50.2% | 55.6% | 50.4% | 1268 | — |
| 4 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 70.0% | 51.0% | 55.2% | 50.3% | 1310 | — |
| 5 | Wind Umbra Guardian | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 50.0% | 49.8% | 53.8% | 50.4% | 1231 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Water Astra Ranger | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 60.0% | 49.3% | 53.3% | 50.0% | 1455 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 60.0% | 50.5% | 51.7% | 50.2% | 1478 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Wind Razorgale | 4 | 13.3% | 20 | 52.5% | 51.9% | 51.5% | 50.7% | 1238 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 60.0% | 51.1% | 51.4% | 50.2% | 1241 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 6.7% | 10 | 40.0% | 48.9% | 50.3% | 49.9% | 1294 | — |
| 11 | Water Luxem Assassin | 3 | 10.0% | 13 | 46.2% | 49.0% | 50.2% | 50.0% | 1382 | ↑ top |
| 12 | Water Aetherwing | 2 | 6.7% | 10 | 50.0% | 48.4% | 50.2% | 49.4% | 1364 | — |
| 13 | Wind Seiryuu | 3 | 10.0% | 13 | 57.7% | 49.7% | 48.0% | 49.4% | 1422 | ↑ top |
| 14 | Wind Byakko | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 40.0% | 51.5% | 47.3% | 50.5% | 1210 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Wind Crux Merlin | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 30.0% | 50.2% | 47.1% | 50.2% | 1095 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 40.0% | 50.9% | 46.7% | 49.9% | 1234 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Slimes | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 40.0% | 49.8% | 45.5% | 49.7% | 1292 | — |
| 18 | Water Fractal | 2 | 6.7% | 10 | 35.0% | 47.3% | 45.4% | 48.8% | 1269 | — |
| 19 | Water Neos | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 30.0% | 49.9% | 43.3% | 49.7% | 1096 | ↓ low |
| 20 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 20.0% | 45.3% | 42.5% | 48.1% | 1324 | — |