← ALC Massachusetts Regionals Presented By Lineage Break
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at ALC Massachusetts Regionals Presented By Lineage Break.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 70.0% | 59.5% | 63.0% | 60.6% | 1422 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Allies | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 100.0% | 68.0% | 63.0% | 58.2% | 1163 | ↓ low |
| 3 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 3 | 13.0% | 12 | 62.5% | 55.0% | 54.7% | 52.6% | 1261 | — |
| 4 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 60.0% | 55.5% | 53.9% | 53.2% | 1282 | — |
| 5 | Fire Erupting | 4 | 17.4% | 20 | 60.0% | 62.8% | 52.5% | 54.9% | 1316 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 60.0% | 44.6% | 51.7% | 46.1% | 1307 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 4 | 17.4% | 18 | 44.4% | 48.1% | 49.0% | 49.3% | 1279 | — |
| 8 | Wind Allies | 3 | 13.0% | 12 | 41.7% | 42.2% | 46.2% | 45.0% | 1269 | — |
| 9 | Fire Tonoris | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 20.0% | 35.4% | 44.4% | 45.6% | 1078 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 40.0% | 47.1% | 44.0% | 45.8% | 1115 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Wind Tera Silvie | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 40.0% | 49.8% | 41.3% | 44.9% | 1121 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 20.0% | 36.1% | 40.0% | 41.6% | 1148 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Fire Umbra Diana | 1 | 4.3% | 4 | 0.0% | 27.2% | 37.0% | 38.3% | 1142 | ↓ low |