← Radiant Origins Store Championship
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Radiant Origins Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Whirlpool Mill | 1 | 5.6% | 7 | 71.4% | 67.0% | 54.7% | 56.5% | 1385 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 5.6% | 9 | 72.2% | 56.3% | 54.6% | 52.6% | 1479 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Exia | 3 | 16.7% | 18 | 63.9% | 57.0% | 54.1% | 53.0% | 1400 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Water Luxem Assassin | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 50.0% | 43.7% | 53.8% | 50.6% | 1388 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 5.6% | 9 | 66.7% | 62.1% | 53.6% | 54.2% | 1388 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 11.1% | 14 | 50.0% | 48.5% | 50.2% | 49.7% | 1375 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Water Astra Cleric | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 50.0% | 48.6% | 50.0% | 49.3% | 1237 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 50.0% | 52.7% | 50.0% | 50.8% | 1192 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 2 | 11.1% | 12 | 54.2% | 44.0% | 49.3% | 46.3% | 1391 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Chess | 1 | 5.6% | 6 | 33.3% | 45.4% | 46.7% | 48.3% | 1341 | — |
| 11 | Wind Luxem Assassin | 1 | 5.6% | 6 | 50.0% | 46.8% | 45.0% | 45.1% | 1451 | ↑ top |
| 12 | Water Tera Cleric | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 20.0% | 40.2% | 42.9% | 45.6% | 1105 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 20.0% | 39.4% | 42.5% | 45.7% | 1226 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 20.0% | 47.6% | 40.8% | 47.7% | 1031 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Water Crux Assassin | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 0.0% | 35.5% | 40.0% | 45.4% | 1006 | ↓ low |