EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Card's Village Store champ.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Genbu | 1 | 3.2% | 9 | 83.3% | 64.1% | 57.0% | 54.1% | 1516 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 3.2% | 5 | 60.0% | 50.1% | 54.7% | 52.0% | 1390 | — |
| 3 | Wind Seiryuu | 4 | 12.9% | 21 | 54.8% | 51.7% | 53.9% | 53.0% | 1383 | — |
| 4 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 3.2% | 6 | 50.0% | 49.9% | 53.3% | 52.8% | 1370 | — |
| 5 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 3.2% | 8 | 56.2% | 54.4% | 52.8% | 54.1% | 1392 | — |
| 6 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 3.2% | 7 | 57.1% | 43.8% | 52.5% | 49.4% | 1518 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Water Exia | 1 | 3.2% | 8 | 68.8% | 63.4% | 52.5% | 53.3% | 1372 | — |
| 8 | Water Whirlpool Mill | 1 | 3.2% | 8 | 68.8% | 63.4% | 52.5% | 53.3% | 1372 | — |
| 9 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 3.2% | 6 | 41.7% | 49.4% | 52.2% | 53.1% | 1220 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Wind Razorgale | 4 | 12.9% | 17 | 55.9% | 50.2% | 51.7% | 50.3% | 1441 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 3.2% | 4 | 50.0% | 57.2% | 51.3% | 53.7% | 1173 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Fire Suzaku | 3 | 9.7% | 12 | 41.7% | 54.5% | 49.5% | 53.8% | 1234 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 3.2% | 5 | 40.0% | 42.5% | 48.3% | 48.2% | 1364 | — |
| 14 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 3.2% | 5 | 40.0% | 38.8% | 48.0% | 45.4% | 1414 | — |
| 15 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 3 | 9.7% | 13 | 53.8% | 37.7% | 45.8% | 40.9% | 1566 | ↑ top |
| 16 | Fire Suited | 2 | 6.5% | 10 | 40.0% | 54.5% | 45.0% | 49.3% | 1207 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Wind Luxem Assassin | 2 | 6.5% | 10 | 35.0% | 50.3% | 45.0% | 49.2% | 1299 | — |
| 18 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 3.2% | 5 | 20.0% | 31.4% | 43.1% | 42.2% | 1298 | — |
| 19 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 3.2% | 3 | 0.0% | 40.6% | 40.0% | 45.7% | 1059 | ↓ low |
| 20 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 1 | 3.2% | 4 | 0.0% | 35.6% | 37.3% | 42.9% | 1124 | ↓ low |