EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Magitek Store Champ.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Umbra Diana | 1 | 4.0% | 5 | 70.0% | 69.4% | 56.7% | 59.9% | 1275 | ↓ low |
| 2 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 4.0% | 5 | 80.0% | 62.1% | 55.6% | 54.4% | 1498 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Seiryuu | 2 | 8.0% | 10 | 65.0% | 56.8% | 54.7% | 52.4% | 1471 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Water Fractal | 1 | 4.0% | 5 | 70.0% | 56.2% | 54.6% | 53.7% | 1648 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 4.0% | 5 | 60.0% | 62.6% | 54.3% | 56.4% | 1280 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Water Whirlpool Mill | 3 | 12.0% | 12 | 58.3% | 52.5% | 51.4% | 49.8% | 1386 | — |
| 7 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 4.0% | 5 | 40.0% | 47.1% | 51.1% | 50.1% | 1410 | — |
| 8 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 4.0% | 5 | 60.0% | 42.1% | 51.1% | 47.4% | 1517 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Fire Slimes | 3 | 12.0% | 12 | 54.2% | 45.8% | 50.4% | 49.1% | 1469 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Water Tera Kongming | 2 | 8.0% | 11 | 45.5% | 50.2% | 49.6% | 51.6% | 1329 | — |
| 11 | Water Byakko | 1 | 4.0% | 5 | 60.0% | 61.0% | 48.9% | 51.2% | 1257 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 4.0% | 5 | 60.0% | 61.0% | 48.9% | 51.2% | 1257 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Fire Oblation | 3 | 12.0% | 17 | 41.2% | 49.7% | 47.8% | 50.3% | 1279 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Horse and Taxes | 1 | 4.0% | 7 | 42.9% | 30.8% | 47.8% | 42.6% | 1417 | — |
| 15 | Water Genbu | 2 | 8.0% | 10 | 50.0% | 41.3% | 47.3% | 44.6% | 1483 | ↑ top |
| 16 | Water Exia | 1 | 4.0% | 5 | 40.0% | 39.5% | 46.2% | 43.9% | 1280 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 4.0% | 6 | 16.7% | 42.2% | 42.2% | 46.7% | 1097 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 4.0% | 6 | 0.0% | 38.8% | 37.8% | 45.9% | 1148 | ↓ low |