Water FractalTier 2
at 貓腳印松江店 RDO店冠賽
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 7.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 43.9% | -5.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.2% | +21.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.2 |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.0% | +20.7 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.6 |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.7% | -6.2 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.8% | -6.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.3% | +21.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.8 |
| Arcane | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.7% | -3.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.1% | -6.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.3% | +24.5 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Mordred | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.1 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.3% | -17.1 |
| Wind Neos | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 17 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 17 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Return to the Archive | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Captivating Opulence | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spalling Cleanse | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |